Mumbai, 20 February 2025: E-commerce has become a fulcrum of change for the Indian retail industry, finds a joint report by ANAROCK and ETRetail released today at The Economic Times Great India Retail Summit 2025 in Mumbai at the Jio Convention Centre.
The report finds that Indian e-commerce is expected to touch USD 550 Bn by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 15%. In 2024, the value of this vibrant and disruptive retail segment was estimated at USD 125 Bn. It is likely to touch USD 345 Bn by 2030-end.
Increasing Internet penetration, smartphone adoption, digital payment infrastructure, and a young, tech-savvy population are driving this growth. Government initiatives like ‘Digital India’ and rapid improvements in the country’s logistics and supply chain networks have further boosted its growth prospects.
“Besides the metros, e-commerce players are also tapping the growing demand from smaller towns and cities. Resultantly, the share of online shoppers from Tier 2 and 3 cities has increased to 56% in FY2024 from 46% in FY2020, and is expected to reach 64% by FY2030,” says Anuj Kejriwal, CEO & MD – ANAROCK Retail. “Meanwhile, the overall Indian retail industry’s market size is expected to touch USD 2,500 Bn by 2035, witnessing a three-fold increase compared to 2019. The report states that this growth is powered by rising disposable incomes, increasing urbanization, a young and tech-savvy population, and an ever-expanding middle class. Today, the industry is defined by sprawling malls and thriving e-commerce alongside traditional bazaars.”
” New mall supply across the top 7 cities was a mere 1 Mn sq. ft. in 2024, while absorption stood at 6 Mn sq. ft.,” says Anuj Kejriwal. “New supply is lagging far behind demand. Current supply and demand trends for mall spaces indicate a post-pandemic rebound in leasing, now largely driven by experiential retail. Apparel and the F&B sectors consistently contribute nearly 45% of demand, remaining the top footfall drivers. Also, post-COVID, the mall vacancy rate has declined from 15.4% in 2019 to 8.1% in 2024.”
The report highlights that major domestic and international retailers have ambitious plans to increase their footprint in India’s smaller towns and cities, resulting in a surging supply of malls in tier 2 and 3 markets which will, potentially, account for over 26 million sq. ft. of mall spaces by 2030.